I hate to say it, but it’s been a few years since I did something like this. Time was where this is something I really looked forward to doing every year. However, I think I may have skipped it last year…or forgot, which puts us in the same place…I will blame entering my 50s and a failing short-term memory.
What was I saying?
Oh yes, something that doesn’t really matter…let’s move on. When I cite returning starters below, I am referencing Phil Steele, which isn’t always a clear-cut thing, especially in this day and age of the transfer portal and Phil needing to send his content to the printer several weeks before it hits newsstands in June.
UTAH STATE: I always look forward to Iowa’s opening game. For me, football is back, which is a great thing. But I love seeing Iowa swarm for the first time each season, and I am reminded that the Hawkeyes may have the coolest uniforms in the sport. I realize that fans of every school may feel similar; it’s just that Nebraska fans are fooling themselves. They are quite good at that, no? But this opener, we will have our first season with the BFM in place. The BFM: Brian Ferentz Meter. Can the Hawkeyes average 25ppg? The two non-conference games not involving Iowa State are a chance to pad that stat line; maybe go for an extra TD or two later in a game after the result has been decided…so that will be fun. It will also be fun to see if Iowa does have some ‘new look’ to their offense. I will believe it when I see it, but if I had to wager, they will be more balanced this season, with elite special teams and a Top 15 defense. WIN
At Iowa State: I’d say both programs had ‘disappointing’ seasons last year if people on the inside could be coaxed to speak frankly. Iowa State still returns 15 starters, and Iowa returns 16. The game is in Ames. The place will be lit…but you know that. Matt Campbell has built a solid program, and Iowa State has significantly improved in the trenches in recent years. They have some fantastic playmakers to replace on offense and defense, but so does Iowa. For me, this pick comes down to my belief that Iowa’s pool of talent is still deeper than what Iowa State has put together, and I will take Iowa in a close one. NOTE: I realize I am going against something I said over a decade ago, where if I think the game will be close, I take the home team. I believe Iowa will win this game. WIN
WESTERN MICHIGAN: This should be a BFM special, as Iowa probably doesn’t crack 25 points against Iowa State unless there are some weird situations or defense or special teams tack one on. The Hawkeyes should score at least 40 in this game. Steele has WMU finishing last in their division in the MAC and says they return just two starters on defense and ranks their DL and LB corp as the worst in the MAC as well as being the worst offense in the MAC, so they have that going for them. Who knows, maybe Kirk goes for the double nickel? WIN
At Penn State: It’s the Drew Allar show at QB for the Nittany Lions, and this will be the first season in a bit where the backup is a bit of an unknown commodity. However, the Nits might have the best front-to-back defense in the Big Ten. I think winning in the White Out is too tall a task for the Hawkeyes. LOSS
MICHIGAN STATE: Phil Steele tabs the Spartans to finish 5th in the Big Ten East. This team looks like it could struggle to find its way on the offensive side of the ball. They had a rather miraculous season two years ago before falling back to earth last year, and it seems they are still a program that will struggle to break free of earth’s gravity this season as well. WIN
PURDUE: Jeff Brohm schemed against Iowa better than any other coach during the Kirk Ferentz tenure. Jeff Brohm is no longer at Purdue. Iowa wins. WIN
At Wisconsin: This is another game that I find incredibly intriguing, as the Badgers are apparently veering away from their power running game identity, pun intended. Maybe another case of believing it when we see it, but by all early accounts, it seems like the Badgers offense will look much different and play with more tempo. New OC Phil Longo joins the Badgers from North Carolina, where he employed the Air Raid offense. They will likely try to mesh some Air Raid concepts with Wisconsin’s penchant for power (in addition to a roster that has mostly been assembled with a power-running game in mind). It remains to be seen what it will look like or if the tempo will place more pressure on the Badger’s typically stout defense, which greatly benefits from the old Time of Possession style of play the Badgers employed for the past three decades-plus. I am going to go with a loss here. LOSS
MINNESOTA: The Hawkeyes come back home, and we all know there is bad blood between Kirk and PJ Fleck (take Floyd and leave the timeouts), and these two programs bump heads a lot on the recruiting trail. Minnesota offers most anyone that Iowa offers, but then again, Minnesota offers most anything that moves. The Gophers are going to have to retool on the defensive front seven, and in the end, I think that’s going to limit their ceiling. They aren’t winning in Kinnick. WIN
At Northwetsern: The Wildcats have had a couple of rough seasons in a row. Their last to first magic ran out on them last year, and their roster doesn’t look all that impressive. On paper, they will have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the offense doesn’t look to be all that much better. If the Cats have another 1-8 record in Big Ten play, even the untouchable Pat Fitzgerald will begin to hear some questions get louder and louder. WIN
RUTGERS: Their roster looks like it’s in the lower third or quarter of the league. They don’t have anything that jumps out to impress you…therefore, the Scarlet Knights in Kinnick Stadium does not sound like a good thing for them, and it could present another opportunity for the BFM to top the 25-point barrier. WIN
ILLINOIS: Back-to-back home games for the Hawkeyes, and Bret Bielema comes to town. This will likely be a lot like many Iowa v Wisconsin games we have seen through the years…late November, colder, two teams who want to win the battle in the trenches (everyone does, but some programs live this out), and it’s going to be a slobber knocker. WIN
At Nebraska: The Matt Rhule era begins at Nebraska as he hopes to return the Huskers to a bowl game for the first time since President Obama was still in the White House (December of 2016). Another new coach here, and therefore, some unknowns as it relates to style. Iowa will know what to expect from the Huskers by their Black Friday date, and the Huskers are going to need to take a step up in the front seven on defense to give them a shot at bowl eligibility. While the game is in Lincoln, I think the Hawkeyes are still too tough in the trenches for the Huskers. WIN
That’s a regular season record of 10-2, which would be 7-2 in the Big Ten West, and five-straight wins to end the season. Will that be good enough to get Iowa back to Indianapolis? Not unless Wisconsin stumbles. First, here is the 2023 Big Ten Schedule Grid:
When you look at the Badgers, I pencil in a loss at home against Ohio State, and they do have to travel to Illinois, who beat them last year, plus the season-ending game at Minnesota. Do you see three league losses on there? That is more to say about the ‘strength’ of the West than it is the strength of what I anticipate Wisconsin will put forth. There just aren’t a lot of losses on that schedule, at least from my vantage point. I could be underselling Illinois or possibly Nebraska. If I am, that could factor into Iowa’s record.
As has been the case in many years, Iowa’s game against Wisconsin could wind up determining who wins the West. I’ll say it here; whichever team wins the Week Seven matchup between the Badgers and Hawkeyes will go to Indianapolis.
NOTE: As I said a few weeks back, if Kirk can win 11 games this year, his all-time winning percentage as a head coach will be over .600, and that is currently the minimum winning percentage required for a coach to be considered for the Hall of Fame.
The reality is that Ferentz has had a Hall of Fame career. A no doubt about it Hall of Fame career. But, if they stick to the .600 requirement, he still has ‘work’ to do.
By the way, how can they possibly keep Mike Leach out of the Hall of Fame? His winning percentage is below .600 but he helped change the sport.
Well thought out take on the upcoming season. 20 + seasons of also ran sprinkled with a few “woopie shit” years. My prediction is the usual Ferentz standard of excellence of 7-5.